By: Bill Blain

In reply to Igor Idlis.

I think the default rise has been delayed by companies monetising resources and eating into reserves – witness Thames Water dead in the financing water (Lol) warning it has one years money to carry on. Its also true of cash strapped consumers have now spent their savings and are now getting into deeper trouble maxing out credit cards to pay for the weekly shop. I think the rise in defaults we expected will be somewhat mitigated by improved earings – but then I ask who will pay to make these profits? Consumers are being crushed by inflation, higher utility bills, accomodation and taxes – as their discretionary income tumbles, they become politically populist – hence Trump, Reform and as I wrote earlier this week – populism as way to nullify the economic desertification of Scotland by the disinterested Tories, nearly half the electorate still favour the “anything else” option of Independence.
I suspect crashing consumer spending is being seen in the hospitality sector and will progressively spread fron the consumer retail sector to goods, manufacturing and services… plus London will collapse because no one can afford to live there!